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Forex analysis from SuperForex
NZD/USD: Short Review & Analysis

We expect the pair to move in a slightly bearish way today.

Today we would look at the NZD/USD currency pair.

For some time now the pair has been moving in a bearish manner below 0.7217, down from 0.7247 previously. The level of 0.7217 actually proves to be an insurmountable resistance level for the NZD/USD at this moment that the pair is simply incapable of overcoming. The NZD/USD seems to be inching closer to the nearby support at 0.7174, so we need to stay alert and be patient until the sideways price channel is fully formed.

Quite on the contrary, Wednesday saw the pair attempting to make new gains, trading above the first resistance and climbing towards the second one at 0.7290. After it failed to overcome it, it retreated to the type of movement we see today. It is not very likely that we would see the pair climb to the second resistance, since the first one is proving to be quite challenging. Therefore, we can wait and see if the NZD/USD will actually drop further down and provide us with a good opportunity to trade on a more pronounced bearish trend.

In the current scenario it would be best if we took sell positions below the resistance at 0.7247, placing our first target at the nearby support level at 0.7174. If the NZD/USD drops further down, our second target would be 0.7144.

Currently the pair is trading around 0.7198, above the support levels. All technical indicators are unanimously giving us a strong sell signal.

[Image: ucx5ykmkvjob6y70i1frvp6fu.png]
The North Korean Crisis

Tensions continue to rise as North Korea's Independence Day looms around the corner.

One could hardly go through this week without hearing about what is shaping up to be the biggest global issue right now: North Korea. The isolated communist state came under the spotlight three weeks ago when North Korea leader Kim Jong Un announced his intention to launch an attack on Guam, a territory under the jurisdiction of the United States. What ensued was a series of threats between Trump and Kim Jong Un, which led to a tense situation on the global financial markets. The stress began to ease off last week, but on Sunday the world awoke in chaos again, as North Korea performed a successful test of a hydrogen bomb in the ocean, which resulted in an earthquake felt in neighboring South Korea and Japan.

Even though there were no casualties, this strike was quite significant. For one thing, many countries had speculated that North Korea did not have the technology to successfully mount such a destructive bomb on a missile, nor to aim it properly. Since the country lives under a self-imposed isolation from the rest of the world, their development has been hampered by a lack of exchange of technologies. It has also been very difficult for the rest of the world to evaluate the readiness and conditions for war in North Korea due to the lack of information (or, rather, the state propaganda that is broadcast instead of information, which many suspect is inaccurate). However, this strike proved that North Korea is much farther ahead in its nuclear program than previously assumed – a power on which Kim Jong Un’s regime relies. The North Korean leader has repeatedly ignored the condemnation of the United Nations regarding his nuclear weapons – and from his perspective, as someone who faces many enemies and might have to protect his position with force, it makes sense that he wants to hold on to his weapons.

It is also important to add that while hydrogen bombs are not talked about as often as atomic ones, they are in fact more dangerous. The test that North Korea performed had five-six times the magnitude of what the USA used in the devastating World War II attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan. If North Korea does have the means to send these missiles across the globe to attack North America, the destruction will be unprecedented.

To try to mitigate the crisis before the irreversible occurs, the United Nations again spoke about sanctions against North Korea. The United States, arguably the loudest voice in the argument, has suggested a ban on exporting oil to North Korea. Without fuel, the country would definitely be forced to reconsider its policies, but it might also cause a serious economic crisis in the country where the living standard is already reportedly poor enough.

Even if an oil embargo could success in theory, we might not see it in practice. North Korea trades with two countries: Russia and China, both of which are members of the UN Security Council and could veto the embargo. Even though both have spoken against North Korea’s recent actions, it is unlikely that they would support anything too harsh. China, in particular, does not wish to lose its position of importance in North Korea. Russia too is protecting its interests by supporting the claim that an oil embargo will endanger the civilian population more than it would neutralize the military program of North Korea. The United Nations Security Council is yet to vote on any measures against North Korea.

Meanwhile, amid the geopolitical tensions we saw the financial markets in disarray. Stocks moved up and down, as did currencies. The dollar lost some of its positions against major currencies, and the EUR/USD was able to pass the psychological threshold at $1.20. We should note, however, that the American dollar also suffered for other reasons – the destruction caused by hurricane Harvey hasn’t been fully documented yet, and the US southern coast is again in danger of another hurricane, Irma.

The big winner this week has without a doubt been the gold, which reached its highest level in a year. As a safe haven asset, gold is attractive to traders who find other instrument too insecure at the moment. Now the markets are holding their breath as tomorrow North Korea celebrates its independence and there might be another attack to “commemorate” the day. As long as the tensions continue, we are likely to see this trend stick around.

[Image: ifvbz4wbij8ya8lfmstr5rksy.jpg]
GBP/NZD: Technical Outlook before UK Bank Rate

The GBP/NZD is ahead of 1.8360 after breaking through the resistance area.

If you want to be successful in Forex trading, you have to follow your rules and your trusted analysis, especially if you use classical methods of analysis. In our last report about the GBP/NZD pair we recommended buying the pair for several reasons: lthe pair had reached further than 61.8% Fibonacci and was trading above the ascending trend line, and there also was a double  bottom pattern, all of which are signs which told us to buy the pair. This is why we bought it at 1.7700 - we have taken our profit at 1.7850. Then we bought the pair again after breaking the neckline at 1.7885 and the prices hit our target today at 1.8230.

The pair is now trading around 38.2% Fibonacci in a series of impulse waves, after it reached 1.7500 - close to the upside trend line. The pair has a resistance area at 1.8362 which the pair is expected to reach in the next few days. That is in case the pair is still trading above the support area at 1.7906 and the moving average 50. The Stochastic indicator started giving us a sell signal, which is a sign that the pair will make a downward correction movement.

The Next Few Days

From this classical analysis of the pair we can’t take any positions now at the current level. We can buy the GBP/NZD at the support level 1.7906 or sell at the resistance level 1.8362, but we prefer the buying scenario for the next trading days. In effect, we can take a buy position now with a small volume and keep our target at 1.8362.

This week the market has some hot news from the UK like the CPI and the official bank rate next Thursday.

[Image: jqj6lepg62w6fnfd9pmrjyh4k.png]
What will happen to the dollar index after "Irma" and "Harvey"

The calculation of losses from natural disasters is out.

Hurricane Irma has almost calmed down and now it’s time to assess the damage. After Harvey's passing about $ 12 billion were already paid for insurance payments. Of course, losses, in this case, were incurred by insurance companies. The fact is that as of June 20, 2016 in Harris County, a region that includes Houston, only 15% of the property was insured against floods. Also there is a National Flood Insurance Program. The program pays damages to those who do not have flood insurance, and often borrows from the Treasury Department to fulfill their claims obligations.

We will be able to observe after a full assessment of the damage from natural disasters, a surge of activity related to the need to restore the affected regions. This means activity in the real estate and employment market, which can help the dollar strengthen its position.

On the other hand, these are internal costs that will be covered by the state. Therefore, experts differ in their judgments, how this will affect the economy and where the dollar index will go.

At the moment, the index continues its downward movement after yesterday's slight increase and at the moment is 91.78.

[Image: 2cegfqsb72g5xrewi23wx5m4j.jpg]
At the moment, the pair is trading in a downtrend and is between 23.6 and 0.00 Fibo levels with a daily chart.
Since recently some reliable enough data came from Canada, we see further strengthening of the Canadian currency.
The indices of RSI and Stochastic also confirm the downward movement after a small correction of 75 points.
At the moment, the pair is also under our Moving Average with a period of 28 and tends to a resistance level lying at 0.00 Fibo level (0.9655).
Tomorrow a number of important news will be released in Australia, at 2:15 (GMT +3) the speach of the Deputy Head of the Reserve Bank of Australia Debbel will take place, and at 4.30 (GMT +3) the changes in the level of employment for August will be published. This may slightly increase the volatility of our pair at the time of the news release.
By day trading, we are now seeing a downward movement, so there is an opportunity to take short positions. With take-profit and stop loss at the levels of 0.0 and 23.6 by Fibo, respectively. We also have a twice tested resistance level of 0.9690, on which it is also possible to fix profits and look for further fluctuations of the pair.
The intersection of our gliding (28) body with a candle and the subsequent fastening of the next candle by the body will highlight a possible reversal.
Support and resistance levels:
0.9655, 0.9690, 0.9745, 0.9805, 0.9870, 0.9900, 09975, 1.0050
[Image: w6vuvr9cdlse354ipoijlc4a6.jpg]
At the moment, the pair is trading in the 0.9450 - 0.9775 corridor located at Fibo levels of 0.00 and 38.2. respectively.
Now we see that the pair found a resistance level from above and went from it back to the values of 0.9550 and 09450.
Despite the decision on the interest rate of the Swiss bank, our pair is trading without much acceleration and, once again testing the resistance level from above, returned to the corridor.
We can observe a possible acceleration of this instrument after the release of data on the consumer price index in the US at 15.30 (GMT +3). So at the moment, based on our technical levels, we can take a position after the release of news that could help strengthen the dollar. Now the price is testing the resistance level of 0.9655 and is likely to seek a level of 0.9775.
The RSI indicator has not yet reached the oversold level and indicates an upward movement to us.
Support and resistance levels: 0.9450 0.9550 0.9655 0.9775
[Image: p1ajr1p4je3b6fiq0ucl1i0tb.jpg]
The GBP/CAD is ahead of 1.6611 and 1.6850 after breaking the channel.
In our recent report about the GBP/CAD currency pair we recommended selling the pair and the prices already hit our first target at 1.5927 to make a profit of +220 pips, then the pair returned back to break the price channel and the resistance level last Thursday.
The price channel which we were trading inside was strong because it has 5 tops and 4 bottoms, so when the prices broke upwards from it, the pair rose more on Friday to trade now around 1.6525. The prices recorded the highest level on Friday at 1.6574, close to the resistance level at 1.6611. We expect the price to reach the resistance and make new highs but we have to be careful in case the pair makes a price action pattern on the resistance area. The MACD indicator gave us the buy signal last week.
The Next Few Days
After we saw the prices break up the price channel we should only think of buy orders, as there are no sell opportunities anymore in these levels. We can take a buy position now at the current level 1.6523 and keep our first target at 50% Fibonacci at 1.6850, and the second one at 1.7050. We can take another buy order if the pair declined to the moving average 50 on the daily chart.
Bank of England governor Carney will speak today at the Central Banking Lecture hosted by the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC and we have the retail sales from the UK on Wednesday, in addition to the CPI and retail sales from Canada on Friday, so we have to be careful due to the news this week.

[Image: gbp-cad-technical-outlook-after-the-chan...-out-0.png]
The GBP/JPY rally will continue after retesting the broken level.
The GBP/JPY rally hasn’t finished yet. The pair recorded its highest prices in more than 14 months after the Brexit vote on June 23 last year. The pair had a strong resistance area at 147.93, which it tried to break three times before and failed in December, May and last July, but this month is different because the pair broke it up last Friday.
The pair is now trading at 150.65, above the support area and the trend line. Last month the pair broke the trend line down but it found the support area which we mentioned before and failed to break it, then we noticed rising bottoms before coming back to trade above the line. Yesterday the pair moved up and down and then closed its candle a little bit below the opening price, so prices could visit the broken area 147.95-148.25 again to retest it and then will go up.
The Next Few Days
The next few days we won’t think about selling the GBP/JPY pair, only buy it. The prices are now in the middle between support and resistance areas, so we can take a buy order now with a small lot and take another buy order when it retests the broken area around 148.00 or the trend line or the moving average 50, keeping our targets at 152.80.
This week the markets don’t offer much hot news from the UK, except for the retail sales data tomorrow. We also have something important on Thursday this week - the Bank of Japan’s decision about the policy rate, which is expected no change at -0.10%.
[Image: gbp-jpy-technical-analysis-before-boj-policy-rate-0.png]
At the moment, on the chart of H4, we see the return of prices in the framework of the rising channel. Drawn for 28 days.
Given the recently published positive statistics for Canada, we can assume that our upward movement will continue and at the moment we are seeing a correction and revision of the positions by bulls that decided to fix the profit.
On the daily chart, we have not yet seen the figures of absorption and the reversal pattern. But on the chart H4 appeared "shooting star", which can signal us about a possible correction. And the ability to draw a "head and shoulders" figure, with a shoulder level in the area of ​​88.90.
But looking at the overall schedule and considering the overall movement, the recommendation is to look for points to enter the long position at support levels.
Support and resistance levels
[Image: u0n3bdmk60i8fkic2mlsk570c.jpg]
The pair is moving within a downward trend.
At this moment the pair is trading in a down trend, slowing down near its resistance levels. We can also note that against the backdrop of strong data, the pair can quickly overcome the nearby resistance levels, as it happened after the press conference of the Bank of England, against which the pound sharply increased its quotes.
Today at 4.30 pm (GMT +3), ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to speak at a press conference. It is necessary to closely monitor the investor sentiment, as many feel that the euro will be pressured and our pair will continue the downward movement.
Our advice for you is to set medium goals and small stop-loss orders.
Support and resistance levels:
[Image: eur-gbp-technical-analysis-0.jpg]
Germans will be electing a new government this Sunday - how would that affect Europe?
Recently global news have been almost monopolized by three topics: the tensions between the United States and North Korea, natural disasters striking one after another, and the recent Federal Reserve meeting and talks of monetary policy changes around the world. One could hardly tell that there is something else very important going on this week: parliamentary elections in Germany.
Why aren’t media talking about the German elections? After all, the elections in France this spring, as well as the British preliminary elections received a lot of news coverage when they were happening. The most likely explanation is that the results of the German elections are not likely to be very surprising. The current Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel still enjoys a stable level of support and is a respected global leader, so most polls indicate that her party would easily win these elections. However, it still is worth it to take a look at German politics, because anything that changes there has the potential to affect the European Union and European markets greatly.
While it is true that Merkel will probably win herself a fourth mandate as chancellor, it is important to note that more parties are expected to make the cut this time. Likely we would see six parties enter the Bundestag. Six voices pulling in different directions is bound to make things more difficult and even slow down Germany, hindering its ability to continue to act as a global political leader.
While immigration seems to be on everybody’s mind and is central to debates between candidates, the number of asylum seekers has dramatically dropped in 2017 compared to previous years. There are other issues on the table such as labour, pensions, education, and more – and they can all affect the way Germany’s economy works – and the way Germany participates in the European Union.
One of the most important things to watch out for in these elections is how the Alternative fuer Deutschland party would do. The far-right political party, often labeled as modern-day nazis, is very conservative and outspoken about its strong stance on immigration: they feel that trying to harbor Muslim refugees and integrate them into European society is a lost cause and oppose the current lax immigration policy of Germany that is championed by Merkel. So far Germany has been the leader in the refugee crisis, encouraging countries to accept and help refugees. This issue is close to the hearts of Germans, as they found themselves in a similar position during World War II – they know what it is like to be a refugee, and they also know what it feels like to be mistaken for a terrorist (or a nazi), just because of your origin. That is why Germany has always maintained that it would extend a helping hand to those in need. However, as the number of terrorist attacks around Europe increases, many people begin to fear for their safety, and other countries, such as France, have called for stricter immigration policies in order to increase safety. This brings us back to the AfD: nazis have not been in power in Germany since World War II, but over the past few years they seem to have gathered a lot of support. It is expected that they may reap as much as 10% of the vote in these elections, securing them a comfortable section of the German Parliament. This means that they would have a say in German politics, and when dissenting views clash in parliament, the stability of a country suffers, as does its ability to act (just look at how poorly the UK is handling Brexit, simply due to a lack of majority in parliament).
Overall, change is coming to Germany, even if Merkel is re-elected. And with that, change will invariably come to the eurozone as well.
[Image: german-elections-20174.jpg]
After breaking the channel we are still waiting for the Moving Average of the pair.
Since the EUR/JPY pair broke down the price channel last month, it is still fighting to make new highs below the channel. The pair retested it a few times before, the last one happening the previous week when the pair reached the resistance area 134.40-50 and now it has been declining for two days to trade at 133.12.
In our previous article about the pair we said that we would sell the pair once it broke the moving average down, but the pair didn’t make it. Instead, it just touched the MA and back to rise again. That is why up until now we could not take buy positions - because the pair couldn’t break above the resistance level and the stochastic indicator had been giving us the sell signal. Now we have a strong support area at the SMA 50 at 132.31.
The Next Few Days
Based on this simple analysis of the pair, after retesting the channel we are going to sell the pair at the current level 133.12 and keep our target at 132.35. We are going to wait for the SMA breaking down, then we can sell again below 131.30 and our target for this trade will be at 126.50. However, this whole scenario depends on the pair still trading below the resistance level 134.50.
This week the market doesn’t bring any hot news from the European Union or Japan, except the speeches of the Central Bank's president Draghi today and Friday, and Bank of Japan governor Kuroda on Thursday.
[Image: eur-jpy-technical-outlook-daily-chart-250917-0.png]
Analysts feel that for the first time in two years oil prices are on their way to recovery.
Last week the prices of oil (and other commodities) suffered somewhat due to a strengthening of the American dollar caused by last week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. However, despite the noticeable decrease, the price of oil still didn’t fall to dangerous levels and remained relatively stable.
Now analysts are saying that the oil market is heading towards a stabilization, and is perhaps approaching the resolution of the oil crisis of the past two years. This year OPEC as well as non-members who are oil exporters such as Russia have managed to cut down their production dramatically, which helped alleviate the oversupply on the market for crude oil. As a result, the price of oil went up by 15% in recent months.
American crude oil is currently at around $50.51, while London brent crude oil is trading around the $56 mark. It’s worth noting that oil extraction in the United States was previously affected by a series of natural disasters that hit the North American coastlines.

[Image: oil-prices-recovering.jpg]
The results from the elections in Germany negatively impacted the EUR, though it still has a potential for stabilizing.
Starting from Monday, September 25 the euro came under pressure due to the election results in Germany. The ruling party together with Angela Merkel won the election, but with the lowest result since 1949. They are not able to form a coalition easily, as it happened at previous elections. However, other parties also cannot form a coalition themselves, which is why nobody doubts that Angela Merkel will again be Chancellor. Nevertheless, it is expected that negotiations on creating a coalition will be difficult because the former coalition partners do not want to continue their cooperation. In any case, the opposition will be stronger than ever, so investors prefer at the moment to invest in other assets.
On the other hand, the Singaporean dollar has been supported this week due to the recent data about the volume of manufacturing production in August, which exceeded the forecasts of investors both in annual and monthly terms, although the growth has been less rapid than in the previous month and amounted to +19.1% against the expected 14.2% YoY.
On the EUR/SGD chart we can see the formation of a weak downward trend which forms after a steady flat period. The support line shifts down, but now we have also a high probability of a price correction. After the market reacted to the elections in Germany and took into account the probability of political uncertainty in Germany, the euro still has a potential for stabilizing in price and strengthening. Market volatility will be lower next week, after an intense news period. In the near future we can expect data about the business activity index (PMI) from Singapore and about the volume of retail sales in the EU.
In this situation the most optimal course of action would be the deals to BUY in short-term trading, which is confirmed by the MACD oscillator. Nevertheless, the probability of the continuation of the new downtrend in favor of the SGD is preserved in the medium term.
[Image: eur-sgd-fundamental-review-forecast-270917-0.png]
At present our pair is trading within the daily Fibo levels and pushing away from the level of 1.2220 (Fibo level 0.00). It has approached and is currently testing the level of 23.6.
So far the pair has not been able to break through the resistance level of the candle body and we are seeing a correction that can last up to 1.2355.
Furthermore, the MACD histogram shows a weakening, and the Stochastic indicator is showing a possible spread. It is still in the overbought zone, but about to enter a really strong correction or spread. Therefore, it's too early to say what position we should take, until we receive a more conclusive result.
Of the fundamental factors today we have data on the US GDP for the second quarter. The pair might not reach our resistance levels, with indicators exceeding the projected 3% and rushing up.
In addition, the Canadian government is concerned about strengthening its own currency and is ready to reduce the level of inflation.
Overall, we are looking for points to enter long positions at the current support levels and expect an upward movement of the pair.
[Image: usd-cad-technical-analysis-369-0.jpg]

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