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Forex News from InstaForex
#76
Euro Mixed Ahead Of German Industrial Production

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Destatis will publish German industrial production for February at 2:00 am ET Friday. Ahead of the data, the euro traded mixed against its major counterparts. While the euro fell against the yen, it held steady against the rest of major counterparts.

The euro was worth 125.39 against the yen, 1.1227 against the franc, 0.8564 against the pound and 1.1229 against the greenback as of 1:55 am ET.

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#77
Japan Has Y2,676.8 Billion Current Account Surplus

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Japan had current account surplus of 2,676.8 billion yen in February, the Ministry of Finance said on Monday.

That exceeded expectations for a surplus of 2,633.5 billion yen following the 600.4 billion yen surplus in January.

Exports were down 1.9 percent on year to 6,307.0 billion yen, while imports skidded an annual 6.6 percent to 5,817.8 billion yen.

The trade surplus came in at 489.2 billion yen, shy of expectations for 591.3 billion yen but up from the 964.8 billion yen deficit in the previous month.

The adjusted current account showed a surplus of 1,957.6 billion, beating forecasts for 1,920.9 billion yen and up from 1,833.0 billion yen a month earlier.

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#78
Japan Producer Prices Add 0.3% In March

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Producer prices in Japan were up 0.3 percent on month in March, the Bank of Japan said on Wednesday - exceeding expectations for 0.2 percent and unchanged from the February reading.

On a yearly basis, producer prices climbed 1.3 percent - again topping forecasts for 1.0 percent and up from 0.9 percent in the previous month.

Export prices added 0.8 percent on month and 0.2 percent on year, the bank said, while import prices jumped 1.6 percent on month and 2.5 percent on year.

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#79
Japan M2 Money Stock Gains 2.4% On Year In March

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The M2 money stock in Japan was up 2.4 percent on year in March, the Bank of Japan said on Thursday - coming in at 1,012.7 trillion yen.

That was in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month's reading.

The M3 money stock climbed an annual 2.1 percent to 1,344.7 trillion yen - also unchanged from a month earlier and matching forecasts.

The L money stock advanced 2.4 percent on year to 1,794.0 trillion yen, up from the 2.1 percent increase in February.

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#80
What is the main driver for the dollar/yen pair today?

After closing in negative territory for three consecutive days and dropping to a low in April, the USDJPY pair changed direction and rose to its highest point of 111.35

The strong dollar seems to be supporting the pair's recovery today. Against the background of positive statistics, the US dollar index rises above the level of 97.00 today, erasing the losses of yesterday.

According to the results of the weekly report of the US Secretary of Labor, it became known that initial applications for unemployment benefits fell to a low from 1969, by 196 thousand in the week to April 5. In addition, the producer price index rose 0.6% for the month and 2.2% for the year. Both figures were higher than market expectations.

Also, by 0.75%, the yield on 10-year treasurers rises, which serves as an additional impetus for the dollar/yen pair.

Today, the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard is expected, the main topic of which will be the assessment of the market value of the dollar, which is likely to become the main driver for the USDJPY pair.

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#81
NZ Dollar Climbs Amid Rising Risk Appetite On Trade Deal Hopes

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The New Zealand dollar strengthened against its major counterparts in the Asian session on Monday amid rising risk appetite, as investors welcomed progress in trade talks between U.S. and China, after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that trade deal would go "way beyond" previous efforts to open China's markets to U.S. companies.

Speaking on the sidelines of the spring meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund this weekend, Mnuchin said that U.S-China trade talks are "close to the final round of concluding issues".

Mnuchin said that the two sides have consented that "the enforcement mechanism works in both directions."

Data from BusinessNZ showed that New Zealand services sector continued to expand in March, albeit at a slower rate, with a Performance of Services Index score of 52.9.

That's down from 53.6 in February, and it marks the lowest index score since 2012.

The kiwi advanced to an 11-day high of 0.6783 against the greenback, from a low of 0.6760 seen at 5:00 pm ET. The next possible resistance for the kiwi is seen around the 0.69 level.

The kiwi that closed last week's trading at 75.72 against the yen firmed to a 2-week high of 75.96. The kiwi is poised to find resistance around the 77.00 level.

The kiwi appreciated to a 4-day high of 1.6677 against the euro, compared to 1.6700 hit late New York Friday. If the kiwi rises further, 1.64 is possibly seen as its next resistance level.

The NZ currency edged up to 1.0582 against the aussie, following a low of 1.0614 touched at 5:00 pm ET. The kiwi is seen finding resistance around the 1.04 level.

Looking ahead, Swiss producer and import prices for March are due at 2:30 am ET.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans will deliver a speech in a television appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box at 8:30 am ET.

In the New York session, New York Fed's empire manufacturing survey for April and Canada existing home sales for March are slated for release.

At 1:00 pm ET, Evans will speak about the economy and monetary policy at the New York Association for Business Economics luncheon.

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#82
Carry trade is back in fashion

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In conditions of low volatility, traders once again resort to the help of a carry-trade strategy. Last week, a Bloomberg currency index that measures carry-trade returns from eight emerging markets has increased for the second week in a row. Such dynamics is recorded for the first time in more than two months. At the same time, expected fluctuations in currencies dropped for a second week, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co volatility indicator.

The lack of volatility in the foreign exchange markets suggests that investors need evidence to accelerate the growth of the global economy. Only then will they begin to enter long positions in EM-assets. Buyers' confidence in improving the state of the Chinese economy seems to be increasing every day. But the data on Wednesday, most likely, will show that the growth rate of the second largest economy in the world in Q1 stalled to 6.3%.

Investors continue to worry about country risks. In India, Indonesia and South Africa, elections are scheduled, Brazil is still trying to implement pension reforms, and Turkey cannot stop the economic decline and high inflation.

Upcoming events

On Wednesday, Indonesians will decide whether to give the current president, Joko Widodo a mandate for a second five-year term or to choose another leader. The official count may take several days. Last month, the rupee became the best in Asia after the Philippine peso.

In Brazil, traders' attention will be directed to the first congressional vote on the pension reform bill. Any postponement of a political event scheduled for Wednesday will be perceived negatively. Markets will focus on the number of votes that supported the bill. The situation with the speaker of the lower house, Rodrigo Maya, will also be in sight, after local media accused him of bribery.

Senior representatives of the Bank of Korea on Thursday will discuss the possibility of a rate cut later this year after an unexpected slowdown in inflation in March. Market participants are already evaluating potential monetary easing. The yields on 3-year government bonds for the first time since 2016 fell below the rate at the end of March.

China is in focus

Along with the GDP report for Q1, China will publish monthly data on retail sales and industrial production. Investors are waiting for growth rates. In addition, on Wednesday comes the first maturity of the medium-term credit line in the amount of 367.5 billion yuan, or $ 55 billion. According to Chinese analysts, this gives the ideal time to adjust the reserve indicators of banks in case of disappointment with the growth statistics. China's securities should benefit from easing trade tensions with the US.

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#83
This April is going to be idle again for the pound

For the second year in a row, the British currency is missing the once-solid seasonal April rally associated with dividend flows. Blame it on the long-suffering Brexit and the risk of participating in European elections. Earlier for more than a decade, the sterling rose in price against the dollar every April. It was a kind of tradition.

The reasons for the pound's growth at this time of year were simple. Local companies repatriated "home" dividends. Most firms are transnational. Not surprisingly, after receiving dividends abroad, they converted them to pounds. This model was absolutely workable and even withstood a powerful shock in the form of the 2008 crisis.

While the pound rose 0.4% in tandem with the US dollar since the end of March, over the past 13 years to 2017, the average sterling grew by 2.3% in April. Last April, the pound approached the peak after the 2016 Brexit, when a referendum was held before turning down. As a result, the GBPUSD pair ended April with a fall of 1.8%.

London has achieved the extension of the country's exit date from the European Union, market concerns about the chaotic "divorce" process have decreased, but this does not mean that the worst is over. Now investors will have to face political risks, such as the upcoming local elections in the UK, and the Brexit deadlock is only delayed. Alarming moods are likely to return and would put even more pressure on the pound. In late April, the British currency may start a new wave of decline.

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