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Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
#16
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 12, 2016

The USD/JPY pair closed the last trading session at 103.516 points during the last trading session, dropping by -0.08% or 0.085 after investors flocked to the safe haven currency due to a break in crude oil and stock prices, wiping out the currency pair’s gains during the earlier part of the trading session.

The USD was backed by support from statements that the 10-year yields for the US were at its highest levels in over four months. Due to positive interest rate differentials, the dollar consistently appreciated against the JPY during the past eleven trading sessions, however, the carry trade exhibit last Tuesday proved to be crucial for the US dollar.

Analysts are saying that this particular scenario might be could possibly occur again on Wednesday’s trading session due to the impending release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. These minutes will be of use to market players in order for them to gauge the overall sentiment of Fed officials with regards to the expected interest rate hike in December. Although the meeting minutes from the Fed usually only cause little volatility in the market, analysts are saying that this particular report might become an exception, especially since the USD/JPY is expected to have a reaction to Treasury yields movement and might reflect its price action in the previous trading session.
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#17
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: October 12, 2016

The EUR/JPY pair was able to retain its support on the 50-DMA and expected to incur additional losses in the light of an expected increase in the USD/JPY pair. The cross-currency pair is now at 114.40 points, going above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 114.09 points. The EUR/JPY dropped yesterday to 114.01 points after constant rejection in the 100-DMA in  the past week.

All eyes are on Bank of Japan as BoJ Governor Kuroda is slated to make a speech today. Meanwhile, European industrial production data is also expected to be released today. But the major announcement for today will be likely coming from the Federal Reserve’s Esther George and William Dudley, who is expected to announce that there is a huge possibility for an interest rate hike in December.

For the cross-currency pair’s technical indicators, the pair’s break through at 114.09 could possibly lead to a low of 112.79, which could then lead to a leveling of 112.00. On the other hand, an increase over the 10-DMA of 144.76 could cause another break at the 5-DMA of 115.05, which could ultimately lead to a confluence of 115.60.
Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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#18
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 12, 2016

The EUR/USD pair was able to extend the sell-off during the Asian trading session and is now targeting the monthly pivot support at 1.1024 points. The decrease in the value of the EUR/USD might be attributed to the sudden controversial drop of the EUR/GBP pair, which shook the whole market in general. The strengthening of the USD has also added pressure on the pair, particularly now that the US dollar is now transacting against risky currencies such as the NZD and AUD.

On the other hand, the bearish break through of the pair at the 1.11 range again served as a level support for the pair, a function well-used since August. The EUR/USD pair experienced a small recovery after increasing up to 1.1068 before weakening further to 1.1042 points.

The daily chart for the currency pair shows the trend line going around the 1.1042 range. A break below this particular range could cause a test of the 1.10 range, and might lead to a weakening of up to 1.0911. On the higher side, if the pair goes over its daily high of 1.1068, then this could lead to the pair reaching the 5-DMA of 1.1115 and possibly the 200-DMA of 1.1169.
Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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#19
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: October 13, 2016

In the outset of the US session, the greenbacks heightened and together with the loonies attained the resistance region at 1.3280 despite of the news regarding the undermined the spot price of the oil. The USD CAD remained unaffected even though the FOMC minutes were not released yet. The pair attempted to make a breakthrough over the upper extreme of 1.3290 though it fall short once again and finally settled around 1.3282

Consolidation is still anticipated for a few more days since there is no driving force present that lead the currencies to the level of resistance.

When the fundamentals realized that the issue regarding petroleum prices negatively influence the economy of Canada then it would finally be visible. As a result, there is a possible price modification that would elevate to the 1.3280 resistance, at the same time obtaining the next spot at 1.35 and 1.4000.
Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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#20
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 13, 2016

The pound and greens remain in an uncertain period, the price became affected due to the current events plus some fundamental determinants including the general strength performed by the USD and the risks associated with Brexit, these made the pair to cut loose its gains from the 1.2325 high to 1.2300 region. The subject matter have its way until the EU session which also added to the afflicted factors is the UK Parliament discussion regarding the Brexit activities. This occurrence decreased the pair into 1.2200. Following the statement from FOMC during the US conference because there are three protesters who insisted for a quick hyperinflation. This event is defined to be hawkish as per the market and this made the USD to gain more strength but the GBPUSD approached a lower position at 1.2100.

This morning a major news aided the pound and greens to immediately recuperate due to a weak trades from the Chinese investors, seeing the two to achieve 1.2188 region.

Mainly, GBP/USD is surrounded by news risks considering the fact that its has failing background which cause it to a complicated method in acquiring confident trades. As a result, it is recommended to steer clear of sterling and dollar until it obtain a well-established regions.
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#21
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 14, 2016

The GBP/USD pair had a stagnant run during the last trading session after the sudden drop in its value last week. The pair had an average day-to-day range of a minimum of 200 pips. The currency pair is now consolidating between 1.2130 and 1.2550 points, with a possible break in the resistance level of 1.2550 opening the way for the pair to reach 1.2360, allowing the pair to have selling opportunities. The currency pair is now trading within the 1.2557 range and analysts are awaiting whether the pair would break through resistance or come down at the support level.

The GBP/USD continues to be affected by the Brexit, and analysts are speculating the pair will continue resonating its effects for another two years, or until such time that the UK finally completes the referendum.

Market players are now waiting for an announcement from the Bank of England’s Governor Carney, as well as a statement from the Federal Reserve’s Janet Yellen and the release of the retail sales data later today. Expect an increased volatility for the pair at the close of today’s trading session. Analysts are generally throwing caution to the wind with regards to transacting with this particular currency pair, especially due to the Brexit and the recent drop in the Chinese economy.
Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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#22
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 14, 2016

The last trading session went bad for the EUR/USD pair due to the release of China’s trade data, which turned out to be extremely lower than expected, with the data showing that the nation’s exports were the most affected sector. The trade data has now led to investors becoming uncertain with regards to the state of the Chinese economy, especially since the Chinese market is one of the largest markets in the world and any movement would certainly affect all major economies. As a result, the Asian stock markets experienced a significant decrease, as well as the S&P500 for the region. Meanwhile, the USD increased its trading value, causing the EUR/USD to reach support levels at 1.1000 points.

The selling for the pair increased in activity which caused the pair to hit support at 1.1000, even going as far as 1.0985. However, the currency pair eventually recovered from the support level and went up to 1.1050 points, with the pair now at the 1.1054 trading range.

Market players are now expecting increased volatility with regards to this currency pair due to the Fed’s statement which is scheduled to be released within the day, as well as the retail sales data to be released from the US. The pair could possibly go into reversal but is expected to immediately get back to its previous trading range during the session.
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#23
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: October 14, 2016

The Canadian dollar inched higher than the USD during the last trading session in the light of the impending US retail sales data to be released on Friday. The risk appetite for the currency pair dropped due to a slowdown of the Chinese economy, with the nation’s exports contracting 10% annually and imports sinking by 2% in spite of a drop in commodity prices.

Oil prices rose due to the weakening of the USD and an offset in crude stocks due to drawbacks from inventories in refined products. Meanwhile, Canadian house prices increased by 0.2% last August, while prices of real estates are now under close monitoring due to an increase in household debt fuelled by lower interest rates, which might become unsustainable for the Canadian economy.

Meanwhile, the Canada-EU Trade deal has already passed another test after the German court denied a petition to block the said agreement. EU Ministers will be having a meeting next week with an aim to discuss this particular deal following concerns that the Belgian opposition might attempt to block the said deal due to the possibility of farm imports overshadowing local farm production.
Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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#24
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 14, 2016

The USD/JPY pair is at steady in an uptrend channel for short-term. Nevertheless, the Yen strengthened against greenback despite the weak economy of China.

The price increase for a while but it declined again lower than 104.00 level. It is expected to go lower but the tension dwindled when it reached the 103.50 level. The price bounce back and the traders were able to recover some losses. Henceforth, the pair is trying to gain its momentum back to 104.00 level. The Resistance level is at 104.00 while the Support level is at 103.00 .

In the Moving Averages chart, the prices are at a high level as it continues the Bullish trend. The MACD is within the positive territory but the histogram declined implying the frail command of buyers. The RSI is also moving downward. It is expected for the physiological level to hold at 104.00 level followed by a decline to 103.00 level.
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#25
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 17, 2016

The GBP/USD pair continued to trade ambiguously after traders and investors expressed their uncertainties over the current state of the sterling pound, especially now that the UK’s strategies for Brexit have also become uncertain. The market has become dependent on the decision between the European Union and UK with regards on how to go about the Brexit, but so far this has not created enough stability for the market players.

The pricing of the GBP/USD pair remained highly volatile for the rest of last week’s session, with the pair having reactions to movements from both the European Union and Britain, creating difficulties for those wanting to choose a trade direction for the pair. In the coming weeks, a significant number of economic data is expected to be released which will greatly affect the movement of this particular currency pair. For this week, investors and traders are expecting the release of the US CPI data, as well as the US Presidential Debate. The UK retail sales data as well as the UK CPI data will also be released within the week. The recent data releases for the UK turned out well for the most part, but the uncertainties surrounding the Brexit will most likely affect the market.
Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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#26
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 18, 2016

The USD decreased its value against the JPY during Monday’s trading session after the release of US economic data which turned out to be lower than expected, on top of investor reaction to comments from Fed Chairwoman Yellen last Friday. The Empire State manufacturing index was released last Monday, with the index dropping by -6.80 in October, faring worse than the previous data of -2.0 and falling below the expected +1.1 estimate.

Meanwhile, the data for Industrial Production also fell below its expected reading of 0.3% since the data came out at 0.1%, but was better than the September release of -0.5%. The Capacity Utilization Rate data came out at 75.4%, going a bit higher than the previous data release of 75.3% but still lower than the expected reading of 75.6%.The Federal Reserve’s Vice Chairman recently warned that low interest rates might increase the vulnerability of the economy due to impending recessions.

For the last trading session, the USD/JPY pair traded at 103.779 points, going down by -0.37% or 0.387 points. Market players initially reacted to Yellen’s statement the Fed might wait for inflation rates to go beyond its expected range before inducing an increase in interest rates.
Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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#27
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: October 18, 2016

The CAD traded within its previous range after the USD and commodity prices had a slow start for the week. Fed representatives have kept traders and market players on their toes in light of the expected interest rate hike in December, but the US fundamental factors are shifting the focus on the release of the inflation data in the coming days.

The Canadian Foreign Security purchases data increased by 12.74 billion, with the input of foreign funds in the country marking the eighth consecutive month of positive net investments.

For the USD/CAD pair, the pair decreased by 0.08% during the last trading session, with the currency pair now trading at 1.3129 prior to the expected rate statement release from the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. The CAD decreased in value due to the decrease in crude oil prices last Monday, and the CAD will be dependent on the BoC’s rate statement on Wednesday, with the BoC expected to become more dovish in spite of little chances of an interest rate cut within the week, mostly due to the expected interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve later this year.
Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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#28
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: October 18, 2016

The EUR/JPY pair has recently experienced a trading high of 116.30, a long shot from September’s monthly low of 112.00 points. The currency pair backtracked from the Fibonacci levels of 23.6 and 38.2 last week after support levels went up to 1114.00-114.12 due to the 20-50 DMA, as well as the Fibonacci levels of 50.0. A breach beyond this level might cause a drop at 113.00 and 112.00, which is in line with the weekly and monthly time frames for the currency pair.

The EUR will be reliant on this coming Thursday’s events, with the European Central Bank seemingly uncertain on whether to increase stimulus to an already expanded policy due to increasing inflation rates and an increase in momentum levels as suggested by growth indicators. However, the ECB still has to remedy the decrease in supply as a means to keep its current program in line and make way for another program, albeit at a reduced level.

Market players are expecting a particularly uneventful ECB statement due to speculations of an unchanged policy and ECB merely repeating its calls for politicians to improve structural reforms in order to boost economic growth in the European Union and to increase inflation in the region.
Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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#29
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 19, 2016

The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 103.87 points, increasing by 0.01% during the last trading session after a high of 103.98 and a daily low of 103.80 points. The Asian trading session exhibited an ambiguous trading activity while the market waits for the release of the Chinese GDP data for the third quarter of the year. The USD is currently on the uncertain side while the USD/JPY was able to retain its stance in the positive territory in spite of rallying from the 100 handle in September.

However, this ambiguity of the pair can be remedied by the oil bulls, since this can be used as a means to measure risk appetite and market demand. So far, oil has been moving on an impressive note recently, with the AUD/JPY pair having a positive bid on its 4-hour chart from the handle of 76-80.

Although the currency pair is trading on the positive side, analysts are speculating that going above the 104.63 means that this could possibly target the monthly low in May at 105.55 points. Since the pair is currently trading at 103.88 points, then the next resistance point is at the 103.91 range of the 20 EMA, 103.98 range of the 100 SMA and the daily high. Meanwhile, support levels is expected to be at the 103.87 range and could also possibly drop to the 200 SMA of 103.80.
Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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#30
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 19, 2016

The EUR/USD pair cannot seem to break through the 1.1030 range and move upwards above this particular range. This is because when the pair tries to move towards 1.1030, the pair has always experienced a lot of selling, causing the pair to be pushed back into the 1.0950-70 trading range.

This activity was also seen during the last trading session, after the EUR/USD pair again tried to go beyond the 1.1030 range but was immediately met with resistance due to the release of the US CPI data, which caused the euro to further drop in value and causing it to revert back to the 1.0960 region. The relatively solid support level of the pair has only caused a minor reversion for the pair after the EUR/USD bounced back to 1.1000 in spite of the significant weakening of the US dollar while traders are waiting for the release of China’s GDP data.

For today’s trading session, there is no major economic news to be expected from the eurozone today, although the US building permits data is set to be released within the day. Market players are not expecting any major movements following this release and bulls will be continuously concerned with the drop in the trading value of the EUR/USD. This is because the EUR will be suffering once the USD manages to bounce back from its weak state if the pair still does not manage to break through the 1.1030 while the USD has not yet regained its strength.
Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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